Saturday, October 25, 2014

How I Got Started in Investing

Working hard is important. But there is something that matters even more, believing in yourself. Think of it this way; every great wizard in history has started out as nothing more than what we are now, students. If they can do it, why not us? -- Harry Potter
The title of the first page I opened to was, "What is a stock?"

I had no idea.

It was the summer of 2003, I'd just graduated from college and was reading through a Series 6 license study guide that Vanguard sent me a few weeks before my start date. All the financial lingo I came across as I flipped through the study guide was intimidating to say the least. 

"I might have made a mistake," I thought. I might be out of my league with this job.

I was a history major in college, and even though I minored in economics, I had no clue about finance and investments. To illustrate, a neighbor who heard I was hired by Vanguard said to me, "Oh, we own some of their mutual funds. It's a really good company."

I nodded along with her, but I confess that I still wasn't entirely sure what a mutual fund was. I needed to learn a lot. In a hurry.

The telephone game

Before taking the job at Vanguard, I was deciding between a career in law or in teaching -- the typical paths for history majors.

Investing, however, was something I knew I needed to learn about and I figured I'd try working in the industry for a year or two before going to law school. At the very least, I'd leave the industry knowing what to do with my money, so I applied to a few financial firms near Philadelphia.

Vanguard was hiring entry-level registered representatives and they liked that I had experience managing a call center during college. My break was that I knew how to talk on a phone. The finance stuff, they must have figured, they could teach me. 

(With hindsight, I realize how lucky I was to start my investing career at a firm that preached things like focusing on the long term, insisting on low costs, and staying the course. If I'd started my career at a commission-based firm or one with front-loaded funds, things might be different.)

Into the fire

It was a steep learning curve. After a few weeks of training, I was on the phone speaking with 40 or more clients a day about mutual funds, placing trades, and walking through IRA transfer forms. While it wasn't exactly the job I'd envisioned as an idealistic recent graduate, speaking with such a broad group of individual investors was great training.

After a year on the mutual fund side, I moved over to brokerage and was introduced to equity investors. My first day on that job, someone called and asked for the current quote for Microsoft. I asked him, "What's the ticker?" Click. Guy hung up. That's how green I was with stocks. 

Working in brokerage was my first real meeting with Mr. Market and the emotions that drive short-term stock swings. The busiest day I had in brokerage, for example, was not on some good economic news or during tax season -- it was when Howard Stern announced he was joining Sirius Satellite Radio. No one cared about price, they just wanted to buy. 

Lessons learned

My first two years in the industry were a tremendous learning experience and those early lessons have stuck with me in the nine years since. Here are some of them:
  1. Few people have a strong understanding about investing and many people are intimidated by it.
  2. Learning how to invest is not easy and requires a lot of time, interest, and dedication.
  3. Most people are aware of the first two points and want someone they can trust to help them achieve their goals so they can focus on other things. 
  4. Investing and money management is an emotional business. The account balance isn't just a number -- it represents someone's life savings and is a by-product of their labor. The financial professional's job should be to help the person manage those emotions and make prudent investment decisions.
  5. There's always something you don't know about investing. It's a never-ending education.
Getting started in investing can be overwhelming, but it's important to remember that everyone has to start somewhere and no one is born a natural investor. The critical thing is to stay confident and never stop learning

What I've been reading & watching
Stay patient, stay focused.

Best,

Todd

Friday, September 5, 2014

An Important Dividend Cut Case Study

Back in March, I explained why I sold my position in Tesco for a 22% loss.

Looks like it was the right move. As of this writing, the stock is down another 25% from my selling price. Worse, the company recently reduced its interim dividend by 75%.

Double whammy

By no means was I the first to highlight trouble at Tesco and plenty of observers have offered reasons for the company's decline. My focus here will be on the dividend.

Frankly, I'm still a bit stunned at how Tesco's turned out and think its dividend cut serves an important case study for dividend investors to review.

Consider that in fiscal year 2011 (year-end February 2011) Tesco increased its dividend by 10.8% -- marking an impressive 27 consecutive years of dividend increases. Well-respected long-term investors like Neil Woodford and Warren Buffett held considerable positions in Tesco and its UK market share was over 30%. All seemed to be right.

The board and management also appear to have been very confident in the future of the business, otherwise they wouldn't have increased the dividend at such a high rate in fiscal 2011.

With the exception of a financial crisis-scenario, rarely does a company have such a sharp reversal in dividend policy. Yet that's exactly what happened at Tesco. 

In fiscal year 2012, the dividend grew just 2.1%. The next year, it was held flat and stayed at that rate until it was finally cut in August 2014.

Source: Company filings
The company's dividend health, as measured by the Dividend Compass, was also deteriorating.


While some warning signs were present, the combination of Tesco's distinguished dividend track record, its real estate holdings, and its leading share of the UK grocery market remained for some compelling reasons to hold and hope for a dividend turnaround.

Yet the numbers didn't lie. Tesco's dividend health slowly worsened, the dividend yield steadily increased to more than twice the UK market average (usually a good sign that something's wrong), and it was only a matter of time before the board needed to make some tough decisions. 

Lessons learned

The first takeaway from Tesco's dividend cut is a reminder that no dividend is risk-less or sacrosanct. In the UK market, Tesco was a core holding in many dividend portfolios (including mine for a while) and up until a few years ago its payout was about as much of a sure thing as one could expect. Yet in a matter of three years Tesco went from dividend aristocrat to dividend plebian. If worse comes to worse, the board can always cut the company's dividend.

Second, it's critical to not "buy and forget" your investments. I know some well-intentioned dividend strategies advocate this approach and while I certainly appreciate the value of patience and keeping trading costs to a minimum, what happened with Tesco serves as an example of why some level of maintenance research is needed if you hope to avoid dividend cuts.

The combination of a permanent capital loss and a dividend cut can have a material impact on your longer-term income returns and you'll have less capital to reinvest in another dividend-paying stock. If you can catch a dividend cut early, you have much higher odds of preserving more of your capital.

Third, no matter how strong the company's dividend track record, if the numbers don't add up, it pays to be skeptical. Admittedly, I held onto Tesco a little too long thinking that it would simply take some time for the company to right the ship. When in doubt, preserve capital.

Fourth, while most dividend-focused portfolios are diversified, the Tesco share price decline and dividend cut is a reminder that it's important not to rely on any one stock (or one sector) to generate a large percentage of your dividend income.  

Finally, even if you're a patient investor, it's important to establish some selling rules. For example, one rule might be that if a company's dividend growth trajectory radically changes for the worse or is altogether halted, it's time to sell. In such a situation, it's highly likely that company leaders have changed their opinion about the company's ability to generate higher levels of cash flow.

What do you think? Let me know on Twitter @toddwenning

What I've been reading this week
Stay patient, stay focused.

Best,

Todd